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UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs. Perez

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Tapology
Tapology
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01.16.2024 | 10:38 PM ET

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!
UFC Fight Night
  • Saturday 04.27.2024 at 04:00 PM ET
  • U.S. Broadcast: ESPN | Prelims: ESPN 2
  • Promotion: Ultimate Fighting Championship
  • Ownership: Endeavor
  • Venue: UFC Apex
  • Location: Las Vegas, Nevada, United States
  • Enclosure: Octagon
  • TV Announcers: John Gooden, Dominick Cruz, Daniel Cormier
  • Ring Announcer: Joe Martinez / Charly Arnolt
  • Post-Fight Interviews: Daniel Cormier
  • MMA Bouts: 13
  • Promotion Links:
    UFC
  • Event Links:
    UFC
Bout   Info
Alex Perez   defeats   Matheus Nicolau   via KO/TKO, Right Hook   2:16 Round 2 of 5, 7:16 Total Bout Page
Bogdan Guskov   defeats   Ryan Spann   via KO/TKO, Ground and Pound   3:16 Round 2 of 3, 8:16 Total Bout Page
Karine Silva   defeats   Ariane Lipski   via Decision, Unanimous   3 Rounds, 15:00 Total Bout Page
Jhonata Diniz   defeats   Austen Lane   via KO/TKO, Left Hook   2:12 Round 2 of 3, 7:12 Total Bout Page
David Onama   defeats   Jonathan Pearce   via Decision, Unanimous   3 Rounds, 15:00 Total Bout Page
Uros Medic   defeats   Tim Means   via KO/TKO, Uppercut   2:09 Round 1 of 3 Bout Page
Victor Henry   defeats   Rani Yahya   via KO/TKO, Punches (standing TKO)   2:36 Round 3 of 3, 12:36 Total Bout Page
Austin Hubbard   defeats   Michal Figlak   via Decision, Unanimous   3 Rounds, 15:00 Total Bout Page
Don'Tale Mayes   defeats   Caio Machado   via Decision, Unanimous   3 Rounds, 15:00 Total Bout Page
Ketlen Souza   defeats   Marnic Mann   via Decision, Unanimous   3 Rounds, 15:00 Total Bout Page
Chris Padilla   defeats   James Llontop   via Submission, Rear Naked Choke   4:33 Round 1 of 3 Bout Page
Ivana Petrović   defeats   Na Liang   via Submission, Arm Triangle Choke   1:29 Round 3 of 3, 11:29 Total Bout Page
Maheshate Hayisaer   defeats   Gabriel Benítez   via Decision, Split   3 Rounds, 15:00 Total Bout Page

Responses Page 6

Hellowhosthat
Hellowhosthat
  • Member Since: 2020.06.27
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04.16.2024 | 7:18 AM ET

Prediction Comments

Predictions: 7 of 9 Winners, 1 Perfect, 405 Points   |   Tied for 3415th

Silva vs. Lipski
Karine Silva, SUB, R1
Karine too physical here I think, she seems to be on the up as a fighter. Lipski improving too and probably wins a striking battle but I think Karine imposes herself on her physically early and finds a sub.

Hellowhosthat
Hellowhosthat
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04.16.2024 | 7:22 AM ET

Prediction Comments

Predictions: 7 of 9 Winners, 1 Perfect, 405 Points   |   Tied for 3415th

Diniz vs. Lane
Jhonata Diniz, TKO, R1
Seems fairly simple, Lane way too chinny and not good enough at wrestling for this one. Of course things can happen at HW but I'd be shocked if a striker as good as Diniz loses here.

Hellowhosthat
Hellowhosthat
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04.16.2024 | 7:24 AM ET

Prediction Comments

Predictions: 7 of 9 Winners, 1 Perfect, 405 Points   |   Tied for 3415th

Pearce vs. Onama
David Onama, TKO, R2
Pearce is gonna get cracked trying to push the pace here I think. Of course he could wear Onama down to a decision if he can avoid that but Onama has spirit and carries his power well late in fights. I don't see Pearce being able to come back like Nate the Train. Onama could also get a decision based on some big moments with Pearce struggling to hold him otherwise.

DevinM34
DevinM34
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04.16.2024 | 8:38 AM ET

Predictions: 6 of 13 Winners, 1 Perfect, 340 Points   |   Tied for 4065th

@gliese58i 
yeah I'll probably pick him on tapology, I just wouldn't put any money on him personally.

"My balls was hot"

Zion
Zion
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04.16.2024 | 11:30 AM ET

Jsp once he gets hold of onama. He's s lock
gliese58i
gliese58i
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04.16.2024 | 12:35 PM ET

@DevinM34

Predictions: 8 of 13 Winners, 5 Perfect, 565 Points   |   Tied for 875th

I share your caution and my stake on him is limited to 0.6u.

"She’ll go there and smash her. She’ll get a title shot, become a UFC champion. We have a Ronda Rousey on steroids. This is what we have.” - Ali Abdelaziz on Kayla Harrison

DevinM34
DevinM34
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04.16.2024 | 12:57 PM ET

Predictions: 6 of 13 Winners, 1 Perfect, 340 Points   |   Tied for 4065th

@gliese58i 
this card is honestly a nightmare for bets. A bunch of trash female fighters who are somehow huge favorites over other trash female fighters and a bunch of unproven guys. Only moneyline bet I really like is Ryan Spann. I think he runs through Guskov with ease

* Edited at 04.16.2024, 2:40 PM ET *

"My balls was hot"

TRTor
TRTor
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04.16.2024 | 2:09 PM ET

Prediction Comments

Predictions: 7 of 13 Winners, 2 Perfect, 415 Points   |   Tied for 3312th

Llontop vs. Green
Gabe Green, DEC
No clue on this one honestly. I’m goin Green because I don’t trust a Peruvian with a sus record. But Gabe Green also isn’t the best so I wouldn’t be shocked with either result l

jeffferson
jeffferson
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04.16.2024 | 3:11 PM ET

Predictions: 7 of 13 Winners, 2 Perfect, 455 Points   |   Tied for 2756th

Llontop's performance on DWCS wasn't a bad one but I wasn't impressed much either. He faced Malik Lewis, who tried to get a contact prior to this fight but got ko'd by Peek. In his fight with Llontop he gassed in the 2nd round already but Llontop still couldn't finish him.

"Train by day, Joe Rogan podcast by night" - Nick Diaz

DevinM34
DevinM34
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04.16.2024 | 3:37 PM ET

Predictions: 6 of 13 Winners, 1 Perfect, 340 Points   |   Tied for 4065th

@jeffferson 
Yeah I think Llontop belongs in the UFC and will win some fights, but I don't think he's anything special. He's gonna have his hands full with Gabe Green. His stock is down after back to back losses to Battle and Garry, but 90% of the division loses to both of those guys as well, so can't hate on him too much for that. I do like Llontop though. He mixes up his striking will, seems really patient, and has some solid ground and pound when he gets on top too

* Edited at 04.16.2024, 3:37 PM ET *

"My balls was hot"

jeffferson
jeffferson
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04.16.2024 | 3:57 PM ET

Predictions: 7 of 13 Winners, 2 Perfect, 455 Points   |   Tied for 2756th

Oh absolutely agree on Greens loses. Drod when coming into the organization was also a complete beast. So currently he's been setup for failure 3 times but when he's not outmatched he actually does well and Llontop isn't a "setup for failure" matchup for him like other three were. Something I really about Llontop is the fact that he's not that round 1 ko or bust with no cardio and we have seen a lot of those. He has shown durabillity & proved he can go for 15 minutes time and time again. Will be interesting to see how both of 'em do. 

"Train by day, Joe Rogan podcast by night" - Nick Diaz

gliese58i
gliese58i
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04.16.2024 | 4:19 PM ET

@DevinM34

Predictions: 8 of 13 Winners, 5 Perfect, 565 Points   |   Tied for 875th

Perhaps. But I find sometimes when the fighter level is low that there are more errors in the market. Whether it is from less scrutiny or something else I couldn't say. Also there's always live spots every week.
Might be different depending on strategy but if you bet dogs livebetting is very profitable because the swings are always out of proportion.

"She’ll go there and smash her. She’ll get a title shot, become a UFC champion. We have a Ronda Rousey on steroids. This is what we have.” - Ali Abdelaziz on Kayla Harrison

DevinM34
DevinM34
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04.16.2024 | 4:21 PM ET

Predictions: 6 of 13 Winners, 1 Perfect, 340 Points   |   Tied for 4065th

@jeffferson 
A win over Rowe is pretty solid for Green too. It should be a pretty competitive fight. I'll probably pick Llontop just because I think he has a higher ceiling and idk what Green looks like at 155, but who knows on that one. That and the Lipski/Silva fight are the hardest ones to pick for me. A lot of people are picking Silva, but like you said it's hard to trust these first round or bust prospects. If Lipski can survive early no one knows how Silva carries over later into the fight

"My balls was hot"

DevinM34
DevinM34
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04.16.2024 | 4:27 PM ET

Predictions: 6 of 13 Winners, 1 Perfect, 340 Points   |   Tied for 4065th

@gliese58i 
Yeah that's true. I'm just talking specifically current moneylines though. And it goes both ways. Market is more likely to make mistakes, but betters are more likely to make mistakes too. It was easy to rake in money on 300 because those fighters have been doing it so long you know what to expect from them. This card there's a lot of cans, debutees, and prospects and it's a lot harder to get a read on a clear winner because we don't quite know where they fit in the rankings yet.

* Edited at 04.16.2024, 4:29 PM ET *

"My balls was hot"

gliese58i
gliese58i
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04.16.2024 | 4:38 PM ET

@DevinM34 

Predictions: 8 of 13 Winners, 5 Perfect, 565 Points   |   Tied for 875th

Right but that favors me as a dog bettor because I'm seldomly concerned with who I think is the most likely to win a fight. But it comes down to what you're good at. I hit 6/15 bets for UFC 300 and got a small loss on the night, basically break even. Normally a 40% hit rate is a good profit for me but because most wins were favorites it was not enough for that card.

It comes down to me not playing tight enough on those bets because I find there is usually more leeway on dog bets. A dog bet where the line is wide has a lot higher EV than a favorite that is underplayed, that's just how the mathematics of odds play out. A fighter that is lined at 20% implied chance to win but should be 25% is at a 25% EV but a fighter that is lined at 75% implied odds but should be 80% is only a 6.4% EV.

Because most people don't care about what I just said or don't take the long view you get FOMO driving dog odds up before matches start and FOMO during livebets massively overreacting to one fighter getting the upper hand where it might not be warranted.

"She’ll go there and smash her. She’ll get a title shot, become a UFC champion. We have a Ronda Rousey on steroids. This is what we have.” - Ali Abdelaziz on Kayla Harrison

DevinM34
DevinM34
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04.16.2024 | 4:48 PM ET

Predictions: 6 of 13 Winners, 1 Perfect, 340 Points   |   Tied for 4065th

Yeah we just have completely different betting styles. I play it pretty safe. I always do my picks before looking at odds so the only time I bet on a dog is if I picked them straight up before looking at the odds. I hit on 5/6 of my bets on 300 and tripled my money. Only dogs I picked were Max and Jiri. So for this card for example I like most of the favorites but they're unproven and -300+ favorites so I'm not touching either side. There is money to be made though on dogs fighting overhyped debutees like Walker a few weeks ago.

"My balls was hot"

gliese58i
gliese58i
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04.16.2024 | 5:01 PM ET

@DevinM34

Predictions: 8 of 13 Winners, 5 Perfect, 565 Points   |   Tied for 875th

I had Holloway as well but he was my only dog that hit. If I had gotten him at the peak value of +195 or so I'd be in the green for that card. I was late on capping that one though, I'm trying to get ahead of things now that we have a week off.

"She’ll go there and smash her. She’ll get a title shot, become a UFC champion. We have a Ronda Rousey on steroids. This is what we have.” - Ali Abdelaziz on Kayla Harrison

DevinM34
DevinM34
  • Member Since: 2022.03.24
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  • Post Score: 157

04.16.2024 | 5:06 PM ET

Predictions: 6 of 13 Winners, 1 Perfect, 340 Points   |   Tied for 4065th

@gliese58i 
I got Max at +158. Man that +195 would have been sick! But I hope you hit on some big dogs and kill it next week man! Best of luck to you

"My balls was hot"

jeffferson
jeffferson
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04.16.2024 | 5:16 PM ET

Predictions: 7 of 13 Winners, 2 Perfect, 455 Points   |   Tied for 2756th

Fun fact: 18/26 of the fighters on this card are coming back from losses

"Train by day, Joe Rogan podcast by night" - Nick Diaz

gliese58i
gliese58i
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04.16.2024 | 5:31 PM ET

@DevinM34

Predictions: 8 of 13 Winners, 5 Perfect, 565 Points   |   Tied for 875th

Thanks, good luck to you too. So far I have only favorites, Figlak and Green. Was gonna parlay Green with Maheshate but the book with good odds denied it so I just put in a straight bet on Green instead elsewhere.

Let's see if Llontop is any good or not, Green will always fight hard for your money and is an enormous step up from the bums on the Peruvian regional scene I spent the last couple of hours watching Llontop grind out wins against.
I really liked Green's performance vs Garry watching in particular watching back his UFC run just now.
The only concern for him is moving down to 155 and how he succeeds with the cut but he's had 11 months to get ready for this one.

"She’ll go there and smash her. She’ll get a title shot, become a UFC champion. We have a Ronda Rousey on steroids. This is what we have.” - Ali Abdelaziz on Kayla Harrison

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