UFC 297: Strickland vs. Du Plessis

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

@BELM0NT 

Mayra is overrated in my opinion. Who has she beat other than a 41 year old Holly Holm? And she was losing that fight before catching Holly in that choke. The same way Holly was beating her (holding her against the cage and clinching) is Pennington's biggest strength. If Pennington can avoid being caught in a SUB she's probably going to win a comfortable decision.

Strickland vs. Du Plessis
Sean Strickland, TKO, R4
50/50 who ******* news, should be fun though.

Pennington vs. Bueno Silva
Mayra Bueno Silva, SUB, R1
Pennington can probably clinch and grapple to bore her way to a decision, its the way the Holm fight was going and Bueno has been susceptible to that sort of fight before, that being said im really rooting for Silva here.

Magny vs. Malott
Mike Malott, SUB, R1
Really like Mallot but can also see Magny Magnying him and winning a boring decision where he clinches and controls.

Curtis vs. Barriault
Marc-André Barriault, DEC
really like Curtis but he can get frustrated if his opponent is really active (Hermannson and Kelvin) that being said has fought higher level then MAB but i think MAB might be able to just overwork Curtis and win a decision

Allen vs. Evloev
Arnold Allen, TKO, R3
still not sold on Evloev, only seemed to live up to hype vs Ige but underperformed in most performances apart from that

Katona vs. Armfield
Brad Katona, DEC
think Katona has him beat almost everywhere, Armfield has finishing ability which katona kinda doesnt so that could be a problem.

Jourdain vs. Woodson
Charles Jourdain, DEC
really close fight, Saldana fight haunts Woodson though and Jourdain has home court advantage.

Lainesse vs. Patterson
Yohan Lainesse, TKO, R1
if it gets out first round, patterson cardio could prove useful but he isnt great defensively and going up a weight class where his size advantage is going to be less prevalent, Lainesse hits hard but slows down, think its a Yohan early KO or a later Patterson win

Gordon vs. Flick
Malcolm Gordon, TKO, R1
Flick wins by submission and no way else, Gordon will have striking advantage and Flick cant take damage well, that being said they are both not great and Gordon was pissing parts of his liver before his last fight and missed weight again. Both untrustworthy and probably should avoid.

Katona vs. Armfield
Brad Katona, SUB, R2
Амфилд будет опасен в начале боя,т.к достаточно жёсткий и агрессивный боец.Но как и в первом женском бою Катона просто лучше и разностороннее. Шанс Гаррета на то что бы сходу ошеломить Катону и если не быстро финишировал,то нанести как можно более серьёзный урон.Чем дольше будет продолжаться бой тем больше будет преимущество Катоны. как боец

Jourdain vs. Woodson
Charles Jourdain, SUB, R2
Журден прогрессирует и растёт как боец,соперник очень не прост конечно,но Чарльз должен находить способы наносить Вудсону серьёзный урон и вполне возможно одержать досрочную победу.

Sidey vs. Taveras II
Serhiy Sidey, TKO, R1
Тут так же мутный бой,два дебютанта,как будет сказываться на них волнение не известно.Отдам предпочтение хозяину октагона,да и все таки Сидей уже знает как Тавераса побеждать.

Robertson vs. Viana
Gillian Robertson, SUB, R2
У обеих девушек есть проблемы со стабильность. Но Виана более стабильно плоха,если можно так выразиться. Напротив же у Робертсон периодически получаются очень не плохие выступления.

Lainesse vs. Patterson
Sam Patterson, TKO, R1
Такой же для меня сложный бой для прогноза как и Гордон-Флик.Склоняюсь к Паттерсону,т.к. он по видимому решил отказаться от сложной весогонки и я думаю будет свежее и крепче чем в прошлых боях.А навыки у него примерно на том же уровне что и у Йохана.

Jasudavicius vs. Cachoeira
Jasmine Jasudavicius, SUB, R3
Разный класс спортсменок виден за километр.У Присцилы есть шанс пантера,т.к. для девушек она очень мощно бьёт,но на этом пожалуй и все. Жасмин банально повыше классом.

Gordon vs. Flick
Malcolm Gordon, TKO, R2
Я конечно не ожидал,что к моменту турнира Гордон подойдёт таким серьёзным фаворитом у буков,за такие кэфы он не интересен от слова совсем. Но всё-же чисто по бою мне он интереснее совсем уж однобокого Флика, который в этом бою будет полагаться только на свой греплин.У Гордона просто больше ключей к победе.

Strickland vs. Du Plessis
Dricus Du Plessis, SUB, R3
Sean asked Dricus at the press conference to stay on the feet and square it out as a men. He kinda knows the danger Dricus present on the ground...

Strickland vs. Du Plessis
Dricus Du Plessis, TKO, R2
no clue.

Strickland vs. Du Plessis
Sean Strickland, TKO, R4
Без комментариев.Шон Стрикланд вперед!!!)))

Pennington vs. Bueno Silva
Raquel Pennington, DEC
Просто посмотрите с кем билась та и другая спортсменки,уровень опозиции даже не на одном гектаре,причем с самыми сильными своими соперниками Майоа встретилась уже на излете спортивных карьер этих девушек.Эгер,Лансберг,ну и конечно же Холм крайне возрастные спортсменки.Ракель же тоже не молода но и спада у неё пока не видно,выступает не ярко,но на стабильно высоком уровне.Да я признаю,Сильва прибавила с момента своего дебюта в сильнейшей лиге мира,но в конце концов,повторюсь, посмотрите не разницу в оппозиции девушек,у меня рука не поднимается поставить против Пеннингтон.Это первый женский бой за долгое время, причём предсказуемо скучный,в котором я прям рьяно буду болеть за одну из участниц и это будет американская спортсменка.

Magny vs. Malott
Mike Malott, DEC
Хотелось бы поболеть за Нила,но износ его как бойца уже серьёзно сказывается.И в лучшие годы Мэгни был оооочень не стабилен как боец,а теперь на фоне спортивного увядания все чаще выглядит уныло в октагоне. Причём умудряется это делать даже когда выигрывает.Единственое что меня смущает, Малотт гораздо менее опытен в боях такого уровня и в этом состоит шанс американца на апсет.

Curtis vs. Barriault
Chris Curtis, TKO, R2
Я всегда считал что Баррио не уровень UFC,но он смог поменять моё мнение о себе.Улучшил выносливость,подтянул стойку,в целом более грамотно ведёт себя в клетке.Но его уровень просто вырос до среднего,появился ещё один гейткипер в дивизионе и такой боец как Кертис должен его проходить.Причем по моему мнению Крис тоже относительно средний боец,но более высокоуровневый чем Марк-Андре.

Allen vs. Evloev
Arnold Allen, DEC
При всем моем уважени к Мовсару,я буду болеть за Аллена,он просто более ярок как боец. Евлоев крепок и вынослив,показал себя как духовитый, буквально не сломимый боец,но у Аллена есть все шансы навязать свою игру,т.к. стиль ингушского бойца в принципе одинаков во всех боях и Арнольд вполне способен воспользоваться ошибками Евлоева.

Thought I'd continue on with my post tape fight breakdowns, I am hoping to get through quite a few of these tonight so I can collect lots more downvotes lol. Still for anyone who is interested, I will put them up over the next few hours.

Thought I'd do Lainesse / Patterson next. I like that fight.

Strickland vs. Du Plessis
Sean Strickland, TKO, R2
Sean once again will prove difficult to hit, while moving forward. Dricus style is perfect for dominating the center of the octagon, but with struggles of landing he will be forced to move backwards and that plays into a possible gameplan change. He might try to brawl during this realization and thats where he will shortly get cracked by the much more accurate boxer. TKO finish. And STILL!

Pennington vs. Bueno Silva
Mayra Bueno Silva, SUB, R2
Armbar from bottom! AND NEW!

Magny vs. Malott
Mike Malott, TKO, R1
Hooks to cage strikes. TKO when Neil falls to his knee and the ref jumps in between the fighters.

Curtis vs. Barriault
Chris Curtis, TKO, R3
Back and forth fight until Curtis feigns a takedown while landing a perfect hook with GnP follow up. It was Up in the air scorecards before the KO.

Allen vs. Evloev
Arnold Allen, DEC
Ive been high on Movsar for a couple years now, but recently he has shown very huge holes in his game. He is extremely one dimensional to the point where he scrambles for a leg even if he knows he won’t get it. I believe this being a three rounder favors Movsar however I think Allen has the game to successfully defend and also clip Evloev and maybe even put him out. 29-28x3 Uni. Allen finishes on top GnP.

Katona vs. Armfield
Brad Katona, SUB, R2
RNC. Katona is being gifted here, and should not let this go to decision.

Jourdain vs. Woodson
Sean Woodson, TKO, R3
Some brutal ground and pound from back side control. Ref jumps in to save CJ from any unnecessary punishment.

Sidey vs. Taveras II
Serhiy Sidey, DEC
30-27,29-28, 28-29 Split. A motivated Ramon pushes this to the scorecards.

Robertson vs. Viana
Gillian Robertson, DEC
Gimme the Grit of Robertson in this turf, 30-27x2 29-28 Uni

Lainesse vs. Patterson
Sam Patterson, TKO, R1
Patterson TKOs a overzealous Lainesse. Straight left to GnP as Lainesse rushes in.

Jasudavicius vs. Cachoeira
Jasmine Jasudavicius, DEC
29-28x3 Uni. Jasmine starts strong and ends strong.

Gordon vs. Flick
Malcolm Gordon, TKO, R3
TKO Ref sees enough after a lengthy, dominant top ground and pound.

JJ has shown she is pretty tough, while putting herself in bad situations it won't happen with Priscilla. JJ  will outlast Priscilla s 3 mins of cardio.Home crowd, Priscilla missing weight...look for Priscilla to gas and JJ to work the finish.......JJ RD 2 SUB.

I'd like to make a case for Lainesse. This is a very volatile fight and could go either way but I think he wins it. 

The main reason people don't trust him is his cardio. And I get it, it's not great. But is it really as bad as it seems? If you watch his regional fights he seems to be able to fight through 2 rounds at least. The Evan Cutts fight is a good example. He was swinging leather and even doing a bit of wrestling in that fight and lasted almost 2 rounds. He has a good chin, a decent jab, good body kicks and I love how he will attack the body when he has someone hurt. Patterson is an open target for a lot of those. And he has some pretty crazy power when he does land.

As for Patterson, his striking is ok and he has a good reach and size advantage with a nice jab, but as I mentioned that does leave his body and legs open to attacks. He does not have a lot of power and is more of a volume striker. His main threat obviously is his BJJ which is very good (he really does have a very nice high elbow guillotine and some lovely front chokes), but his wrestling is not that good. His takedowns mainly seem clinch and trip takedowns and a lot of his submissions are opportunistic from the clinch. Cardio is a strength. My main issue is how hittable he is and his vulnerable chin, I am not sure it will hold up to the shots of Lainesse. He definitely is not taking the shots Mike Mallot and Gabe Green took. Also of note, though Patterson is much taller, if the stats are accurate he only has a 2 inch reach advantage. The main thing Lainesse needs to do is to avoid the clinch.

Basically if this fight goes to late round 2 or round 3, Patterson will begin to take over and probably get a front choke finish. Likely from the clinch. But I just feel that head target and the open body won't last for 2 rounds of Lainesse's attacks. I don't think it gets to round 3, and unless Patterson catches an opportunistic early submission I think he gets put out cold. That last KO from Ashmouz was a bad one. 

* Edited at 01.20.2024, 5:07 AM ET *

Careful betting on Lainesse... he just got his first kid... could change alot of thing in a training camp... + i have friends who sparred with Lainesse and absolutely killed him with leg kicks... he doesnt check at all... all he have is power. Slow, telegraphed BUT Fraudy Patterson seem to have a glass chin so who knows?  Avoid this fight 

Thanks man. Good info to have. Maybe a good one to avoid

* Edited at 01.20.2024, 7:48 AM ET *

Jasudavicius vs. Cachoeira
Jasmine Jasudavicius, DEC
Vejo a Jasmine como a atleta mais completa neste combate! acredito que se a canadense vença na decisão. A não ser que a Priscila consiga um nocaute...

Has there ever been a title fight where not only the defending champ but also the challenger were such underdogs in their previous fights? 

Haven't been hopping like this from fighter to fighter for a really long time like I do on this card for a few fights. Still can't decide. 

Gordon vs. Flick
Malcolm Gordon, DEC
Vou com a galera! acredito que o Flick seja superior na luta agarrada, e que o Gordon seja um atleta mais completo. Isso, pois, além de ser faixa preta de Jiu-Jitsu, tem uma trocação mais ajustada!